1st Quarter 2021 Capital Market Assumptions1 Every year we make it a priority to review the JPMorgan Capital Market Assumptions and use it as a reference point in helping us formulate asset allocation decisions. Capital Market Assumptions (CMA) are meant to be used for long-term guidance for asset class returns, and the shorter you make …
You can access the notebook used to generate the analysis presented below here: https://gist.github.com/aarongilman/5054fc12ccde79076e45501ab82c0690 If you prefer to view this post as a Jupyter Notebook, you can view it that way at the end of the post. The S&P 500 has recovered all of the losses from the COVID crash earlier in the year. Does …
Continue reading “Exploring the 2020 Stock Market Recovery in the United States”
You can access the notebook used to generate the analysis presented below here: https://gist.github.com/aarongilman/2294df2e39642a3c81eb0b4bbe29b17f If you prefer to view this post as a Jupyter Notebook, you can view it that way at the end of the post. A Week After the Election – Looking at the week before and the week after the election through …
Continue reading “Post Election Analysis – Taking Clues from the Market”
Given where we are in both the economy and stock market this year, I think it would be helpful to revisit some of the same data points and charts we looked at last quarter and see how things have changed. Record levels of money market assets held by investors and institutions When we last examined …
Continue reading “Uncertainty, the Economy and Markets: Q3 2020”
2020 has been an interesting year for investors so far and it is showing no signs of letting up any time soon. The most popular and widely followed stock market indices are typically market-capitalization weighted (read more about it here https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalizationweightedindex.asp) and at times can be rather misleading when used as a proxy for performance …
Continue reading “A Decomposition of the Market Composition”
Summary Every time the Fed announces monetary easing of some kind, we are flooded with questions and fear regarding inflation. You can also see a similar amount of interest when looking at Keyword searches on Google: We believe that most of the public and even many investment professionals in the US lack an understanding of …
Continue reading “A Quantitative Look at Inflation and Monetary Policy in the United States”
When investing, there are many different investment styles and factors for categorizing stocks. Categorizations became especially popular when Morningstar created a style box to classify stocks. Across the vertical axis of the Morningstar style box, stocks are categorized by size. There are large cap, mid-cap, and small-capitalization stocks, which is based on the market capitalization …
Continue reading “When Comparing Growth to Value, Look Under the Hood”
The biggest challenges I faced investing early on were both, getting to know myself, and the cognitive traps that we are all susceptible to. I am a firm believer that successful investing has more to do with understanding one’s self first, and then developing processes to help short-circuit or sidestep any behaviors that may be …
Technology is one of those things in life that’s constantly changing, forcing us to relearn systems, adapt and overcome. Call it forced adaptation. Call it annoying and counterintuitive at times. However, technology can be the answer to a difficult problem or just the tool we need to make our lives a bit easier from day …